What can we expect from China in 2022?
Working as a long-range weather forecaster in the US army, economist and Nobel laureate Kenneth Arrow once asked his superiors to be relieved of duty. His forecasts were no better than guesswork, he argued.
His request was refused outright: “The commanding general is well aware that the forecasts are no good. However, he needs them for planning purposes.”
Forecasting political developments, too, is frustrating work. Anyone trying to gain a level of certainty about an inherently uncertain future faces many obstacles. This holds especially true for China, where information is highly controlled and decisions are taken behind closed doors.
But that does not make forecasting futile. On the contrary, it makes it more necessary. Insights gained from forecasting make uncertainty more manageable. It facilitates contingency planning and the development of longer-term strategies.
Consequently, in addition to the annual MERICS China Forecast, we have examined the 2022 forecasts from five other organizations (Eurasia Group, Economist, EY, Control Risks and SupChina), and analyze their expectations for China’s development and foreign relations.
The aggregate results paint a pessimistic picture for 2022.
