Green Deal under attack? Mapping the risks

In her Political Guidelines for 2024–2029, President Ursula von der Leyen frequently underlines that the European Commission “will stay the course on all of our goals, including those set out in the European Green Deal”. Her repeated emphasis exposes two truths.

First, it acknowledges that there are forces who indeed wish to chart a different course and limit the goals of the Green Deal. Besides populist politicians from the far-right and far-left who have called on the European Commission to “forget about the Green Deal” altogether, there are an increasing number of stakeholders who wish to see the ambitions of the Green Deal diminished.

Second, it signals that while von der Leyen is not willing to compromise on the goals of the Green Deal, she is willing to change, postpone and withdraw some of its policies. As she did, when she scrapped the EU’s pesticide reduction plan in early 2024, on the back of the farmers’ protests. The vision — achieving climate neutrality by 2050 — remains. But reality — the state of things as they currently exist — can change.

So as we enter this new EU policy cycle, the question to ask is: What exact changes will be made to the European Green Deal? And will or won’t these changes ensure that we stay “the course on all of our goals”?